The NBA is filled with great, young talent under 23 years old. Recently, Dunc’d On completed their annual top-10 NBA prospect podcast which led to many variations being posted on Twitter. Using those lists as my basis, I used my player projection model to find the top 23 and under NBA prospects.
The projections are built around my player projection model, the same one I use to project season win totals during the offseason. The played model I developed compares a slightly modified and regressed version of what a player has done over their previous three seasons to a database of historical season. For rookies, the model regresses current season performance to how the player projected out of college or overseas. The model finds similar players statistically/stylistically and uses how those players’ games changed as they aged as a crutch to augment a generic aging curve to better tailor it to the specific player’s style of play and skill set.